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. and number three, iraq. iraq has continued to increase their production. you know, they have as much reserves as iran, so they are the third or second -- tied for second in the world of reserves, and iraq has put in these offshore terminals, and they have been able to ramp up the exports. that is likely to put some downward pressure if there's no geopolitical blow up, maria. >> i was just going to see, weigh the geopolitical risk versus the spr noise and tell me where oil goes between now and the end of the year. >> well, we have 117 for the end of the year on brefnlt now our view is that the geopolitical noise is not likely to seriously dissipate, because there's no sign of progress in the iranian nuclear negotiations. there's no sign that the standoff will be eased any time soon, and without any easy off ramp, we don't see how this situation is resolved, so we think potentially 2013 you're really looking at a question of does iran get nuclear weapons capability, or do you take military action to forestall that? we don't see the noise really going down on that issue, and we look at rest of t
they did in syria and iraq years ago would certainly spike the price of oil. you're going to go right to that 2008 $150 high. maybe even higher. but do we stay there? that's the question. we could come back down rapidly. to the extent there's destabilization, to the extent the iranian's mine the strait of hormuz, make other regional attacks, launch proxy battles, then it's off to the races in terms of a $200-plus barrel per oil because, like i said, the strait of hormuz gets shut down, i don't care if it's shut down for 15 minutes, once that headline hits the tape, it's over. >> david, obviously the markets try to handicap the possibility of a strike on a daily basis, an hourly basis. what are you hearing? can it be averted, or is it something that -- in whatever form it takes, whether it's the strike john referred to or something bigger, is it inevitable, do you think? >> you know, i think that the prime minister is confident that, you know, if the threat of credible military action becomes more significant, and frankly that will depend on the position president obama takes. i think
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